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EXPERT SPOTLIGHT

Patrick J. O'Hare
Chief Market Analyst
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Patrick J. O'Hare - Chief Market Analyst

A few years after graduating from Vanderbilt University in 1993, Patrick joined Briefing.com and has worked in various analytical roles. As Chief Market Analyst, he sets and articulates the research group’s market view, employing a top-down approach that is grounded in fundamental analysis.

He also heads our strategy committee, and regularly provides macroeconomic perspective and nonconsensus research ideas in addition to playing a lead role in contributing to the development of investable themes that are covered by our staff of research analysts.

Patrick is quoted regularly by the financial press and has made appearances on CNBC, The Nightly Business Report, FOX Business Network, Reuters TV and CNN International.

Get the inside scoop on Patrick J. O'Hare. This expert spotlight features:
•   Q&A
•   Briefing Research - Report Excerpt
•   Patrick Featured in the Media

Q & A

Q: You’ve been providing commentary and analysis for Briefing.com for nearly 15 years. What trends or themes are you currently seeing in today’s market environment?

A: Expand and Collapse
There is a prevailing trend of short-termism in the market that has polluted the definition of what it means to be an “investor.” Investment time horizons for many are now defined in terms of days, weeks, and months rather than years. Furthermore, there now seems to be an emphasis on owning stocks rather than holding an ownership position in publicly-traded companies.

I attribute the shift in the investment time horizon and mentality to the delusional period of the Internet bubble, the commoditization and ease of stock trading, and the saturation of real-time news and commentary that comes with the in-your-face business TV programs, the mostly free domain of the Internet, and the rise of social media.

Real-time information is not a bad thing. In fact, it is a very good thing, assuming of course the real-time information is good information. However, we are now culture-bound with information overload that can – and does – make it exceedingly challenging for individual investors to maintain the conviction of their investment beliefs.

Separately, we are seeing retail investors disengage from the equity market, having been burned by two bear markets over the last ten years and punctuated by a genuine crash in equity prices between September 2008 and March 2009.

This is understandable as the return of capital has taken precedence over the return on capital. Still, it is bothersome to us because many of those investors probably missed most, if not all, of the 100% rebound off the March 2009 low and are now resigned to accept negative real returns in cash accounts that are a recipe for long-term underperformance.

Q: Our readers mainly know you for your general market analysis via the Page One and The Big Picture columns featured on Briefing.com. But in the past year or so your focus has changed and you’ve become an integral part of the Briefing Research team. How is the analysis that you provide for Briefing Research different than what is found on Briefing.com?
 

A: Expand and Collapse
Briefing Research has been tailored to meet the needs of the institutional marketplace. As such, it is accented with more data-driven research than readers of Briefing.com are probably accustomed to seeing.

Read an excerpt from Patrick’s latest report for an example of the highly data-driven analysis found on Briefing Research.

Additionally, Briefing Research is organized around specific investment themes and is supplemented with high-frequency economic analysis and capital markets perspective. This organizational quality cultivates a fertile ground of targeted research for our clients, a number of whom do not have a large enough support team in-house to drill down on these investable opportunities.

One of the main value propositions for using Briefing Research is that we offer an experienced team of professional research analysts at a mere fraction of the price it would cost to hire an in-house research staff.

Briefing Research is currently concentrating on five investment themes. They are enumerated below along with their respective investment premise.

  1. Cloud Computing
    Cloud computing is the most transformational evolution of technology since the introduction of the PC. But to truly understand the transformational nature of the cloud computing concept, it is necessary to separate the meaningful from the minor and inconsequential aspects.


  2. Commodities - A Structural Imbalance
    The demand growth borne out of the industrialization and urbanization of the developing markets, and the complacency in the inevitability of production growth, have been the root causes of this century's commodity super cycle.

    The financial crisis caused a mid-cycle correction, but it did not alter the course set by the rise of the BRIC middle class. The demand curve has already been altered and it will take time for the commodity complex to adjust.


  3. Seeking Yield
    When allocating funds to fixed-income assets, the goal is to minimize the risk associated with the return that is being sought. Ultimately, managers are "seeking yield" for the end user regardless of a specific risk profile. This goal does not change in the wake of evolving micro and/or macro factors.
     
    What does change is the pursuit of yield in the face of those evolving factors, which can range from geopolitical risk to demographic patterns to economic cycles. It is this change in demand that impacts yields and allocation strategies.
     
    The ongoing challenge is to be ahead of those shifts in demand and to discover reallocation opportunities before they become commonplace. In "Seeking Yield," that is exactly what we aim to do for money managers.


  4. The Changing Consumer
    Just as economies evolve, so do consumers. This evolutionary process stems from a multitude of reasons that vary in influence and impact across the globe: economic; political; ideological; technological; societal; and cultural.

    In advanced economies, that process is reaching a maturing stage as populations age and consumption growth slows. In developing economies, consumption is on the rise as a transition to policies geared toward driving growth through domestic demand has resulted in an increase in per capita income and the broadening of the middle class.


  5. Unconventional Wisdom
    When events unfold to challenge conventional wisdom, opinions can change in a hurry along with the investment landscape.

    The aim of "Unconventional Wisdom" is to consider the alternative view to conventional wisdom and to explore potential investment ramifications if, or when, conventional wisdom shifts.

Briefing Research - Report Excerpt


Patrick Featured in the Media

May 1 Active Trader Magazine – Pat provides insight on January earnings and the early March correction. “The recent run-up was a function of market participants deciding the fears that dominated the market in 2011 were not necessarily as bad as people thought they were going to be. Investors looked back at 2011 and saw double-digit earnings growth with a flat market,” he says. “People realized that macros concerns were trumping fundamental factors last year. At the end of the day, we are still seeing earnings increase for U.S. corporations. When you have earnings growth against a backdrop of low inflation and low interest rates, you should see equities moving up.” Read the full article now.

Mar 20thNext Invest Conference – Chief Market Analyst, Patrick J. O’Hare is a guest speaker at this year’s virtual conference. He provides insight on his latest research on systematic risks and the banking system and why it matters to the individual investor.

Mar 13thMarket Wrap with Moe Ansari – Patrick J. O’Hare discusses his Briefing Research report “Banks are Stressed Out and Better For It” and provides insight on the Federal Reserve's 2012 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) results. Listen to the podcast now.